Where Dubai rents will rise next and where they’re likely to cool as new supply arrives

Dubai’s rental market is moving into a more balanced — and slightly choppier — phase. After several years of rapid rent growth, a big wave of handovers and new apartment supply is set to change where landlords can push rents and where tenants will suddenly have more choice. Here’s a neighbourhood-by-neighbourhood snapshot of winners and pressure points to watch in the remainder of 2025 and into 2026.

Hotspots where rents are most likely to keep rising

Downtown Dubai, Dubai Marina and Palm Jumeirah (prime waterfront / tourism-facing stock). These neighbourhoods continue to attract tourists, wealthy short-term lessees and long-term end-users who prize location and lifestyle over price. The luxury and prime segments have shown resilience compared with mass-market apartments. Expect modest rent gains and strong seasonal demand in these areas. (Financial Times)

Dubai Hills Estate and Arabian Ranches (family villa communities). Demand for family-sized homes remains robust — especially for good school catchments and community amenities — so villa rents and townhouses in established masterplans should hold up better than the mid-market apartment pool. JLL and other market watchers highlight the pull of master-planned communities for long-stay tenants. (JLL)

Business Bay and parts of DIFC/Downtown-adjacent micro-markets. Business Bay’s mix of offices, hotels and new premium residential product keeps it in landlords’ favour. Where new high-quality stock is limited, landlords may continue to increase asking rents, particularly for refurbished or well-located towers. (JLL)

Where rents are likely to cool as supply hits the market

Jumeirah Village Circle (JVC), Arjan and parts of Dubailand. These are among the areas with the largest pipelines of apartment completions. The arrival of thousands of new units — especially mid-market and budget apartments — will give tenants more options and bargaining power, putting downward pressure or at least capping rent growth in these communities. Data aggregators and pipeline analyses show JVC and several off-plan heavy neighbourhoods leading deliveries. (Global Property Guide)

Business Bay and certain apartment-heavy pockets of Mohammed Bin Rashid City / Expo-adjacent supply. While Business Bay has prime parts that will stay resilient, other stretches with a heavy concentration of new towers could see increased vacancies and slower growth once those units come online. Analysts warn the broad apartment segment will feel the greatest impact from new completions. (Global Property Guide)

Some value-led submarkets where many investor units were launched. Areas that were the focus of speculative off-plan buying (small studios and one-beds in peripheral towers) are most exposed to oversupply and softer asking rents once their mass handovers are complete. Ratings agencies have flagged oversupply risk to prices and rents in lower-end segments. (Reuters)

The big picture: growth pockets vs. oversupply risk

• Volume matters. Around 2025–2026 a very large pipeline of apartments is due for delivery — causing more competition among landlords in the apartment segment, even while villas remain tighter. Market reports and developer handover schedules point to large unit deliveries concentrated in a handful of communities. (Argaam Plus)
• Quality and location will win. New, well-appointed buildings with amenities and easy transport links will still attract tenants at premium rents — older stock without upgrades will feel the heat. Analysts consistently note that headline averages can hide contrasting dynamics between prime and secondary stock. (CBRE)
• Expect moderation, not a crash (but risk varies by segment). Several institutional reports foresee a market correction or flat-to-mild declines in some segments, but prime areas and villas are expected to be more resilient. Still, rating agencies caution double-digit price corrections in some scenarios if supply outpaces demand. (Reuters)

What tenants and landlords should do now

• Tenants: Use the new-supply window to negotiate — for buildings with many handovers, landlords will need incentives to retain tenants (discounted renewals, fit-out allowances, flexible lease terms). Look beyond headline communities to newer masterplans where value is likely to be stronger. (Bayut)
• Landlords: Focus on retention — upgrade common areas, consider staged rent increases and offer modest incentives rather than large hikes. Price competitively for older inventory and highlight upgrades/amenities for units you want to keep occupied. (JLL)
• Investors: Stress-test cashflow assumptions for mid-market apartments in supply-heavy communities; diversify into villas or prime locations if capital preservation and rental yield stability are priorities. Ratings reports and broker analyses underline the variable risk across micro-markets. (Reuters)

Bottom line

Dubai’s rental story in the next 12–24 months will be one of rotation: prime waterfront and family-oriented communities should continue to show strength, but many apartment-heavy, off-plan hotspot neighbourhoods will face greater tenant choice and pricing pressure as new supply arrives. Savvy tenants can benefit from increased options; savvy landlords will need to choose between competing on price or product. Keep watching JVC, Arjan, Business Bay and other high-delivery zones for early signals — they’ll tell you whether the market is merely stabilising or starting a wider reset. (Global Property Guide)